Markham, ON - The storm is now fully mature and had left its home, Pacific Ocean. It is now churning up south of Lake Superior, with its head precipitation originating from the warm front falling in the Windsor, Essex County area. However, the air above that area is still too dry to sustain precipitation as of 4:00 pm EST, and thus they are having a virga.

New model had just come up. I had run it through using WXSIM, an atmospheric simulator again, and here are the summarized results:

According to the radar map, the first bands of the precipitation will come in around 7 pm tonight. With some dry air above us, we will see virga (meaning the precipitation will not touch the ground). The temperature will still be quite frigid due to the departing high pressure system that we witnessed this afternoon. The temperature will stay at -11 C. The low will be circulating some easterly winds ahead of the warm front. The snow will finally break its virga layers at around 8:30 to 9:00 pm EST, and light snow will start to fall. Due to the warm front is moving very slowly northward, the light snow is going to last for hours. The snow will intensify into moderate continuous snowfall at around 1:00 am EST Sunday, when the front is dragged more closer to the Greater Toronto Area. However, the exact line of warm front will not come until much later, until probably 1:00 pm EST tomorrow. This is when the warm air overrides the cold air, and thus we will see sleet, freezing rain, and some mix precipitation. The freezing rain could accumulate up to 5 mm. The warm front will finally penetrate through by 4:00 pm EST, but the mix precipitation will last up to 10:30 pm EST of the same night. At 10:30 pm EST, the surface temperature is projected to reach up to 1 C, as the warm air from the Gulf of Mexico invades much of Southern Ontario. At this time, the warm front already reaches Gravenhurst, Huntsville, Muskoka and Area. Any parts of Ontario south of that, east of Kingston, Bancroft will see moderate rainfall. We are currently expecting 15 to 25 mm of rain. The rain will last through the latter part of the night. Parts of the Greater Toronto Area and the areas southeast of that might see a break in precipitation, due to the gap between the warm front and the cold front. Note than the winds will be continuing coming from the south at around 50 km/h, gusting to 80 km/h is possible. Temperature is going to be on the rise throughout Southern Ontario, peaking at 4 C in the Greater Toronto Area Sunday-Monday overnight at around 4:00 am. A sharp burst of rain will come right around the aforementioned time, due to the cold front start sweeping through the Greater Toronto Area. The cold front is more aggressive, and we will see some heavy rain from it, turning into sleet, wet snow, ice pellets after 4:00 am on Monday. The mix precipitation will start around 6:00 am on Monday, and will last throughout the whole day. Temperature will be dropping throughout the day, from 4C at 4:00 am to -5 C at 5:00 pm. At around 3:00 pm EST on Monday, the mix precipitation will change from freezing rain into light snow. The cold front will be well past us, and all we will see after that are some left over (or the back side) of the system. The system that had drenched our area with precipitation will now be corrupt, and the one off the Atlantic Seaboard will take over. However, this corrupt low pressure centre will still supply us with some light snow showers. The upper atmosphere will remain unstable. The snow shower will not dissipate until Tuesday afternoon. By then, we should see an additional snowfall amount of anywhere from 3 cm to 10 cm.

Additional lake effect may kick in Monday night into Wednesday morning. Leeward sides of Lake Huron, Georgian Bay (i.e. Barrie, Collingwood, Owen Sound) may see an additional of 15 to 25 cm of snow. Areas north of Muskoka District (including Parry Sound), will see all snow in this system, and could accumulate 10 to 20 cm.

I have prepared 2 maps to further depict this storm.

Storm Track


Snowfall Forecast


Ontario

Essex County (Windsor; La Salle; Tecumseh) - Trace to 3 cm (Mainly rain)
Lambton County; Chatham-Kent - 1 to 7 cm (Lake effect plays a major role)
Grey County; Bruce County (Owen Sound; Goderich; Tobermory; Kincardine) - 5 to 20 cm (Lake effect)
Perth County; Huron County (Stratford) - 3 to 8 cm
Waterloo Region (Kitchener; Cambridge) - 3 to 8 cm
Middlesex County; London - 2 to 15 cm (Lake Effect)
Brant County; Oxford County (Brantford) - 2 to 4 cm
Hamilton (Stoney Creek; Dundas; Ancaster) - 2 to 4 cm
Niagara Region; Haldimand County; Norfolk County (St. Catharines; Niagara Falls) - LOW ELEVATION: Trace to 2 cm; HIGH ELEVATION: 2 to 5 cm
Halton Region; Peel Region (Burlington; Mississauga) - 2 to 7 cm
Toronto (North York; Etobicoke; Scarborough) - 5 to 10 cm
York Region (Markham; Vaughan; Newmarket) - 10 to 15 cm
Simcoe County (Barrie; Collingwood; Midland) - 15 to 35 cm
Muskoka (Huntsville; Gravenhurst) - 20 to 25 cm
Sudbury (Chelmsford; Nickel Centre) - 5 to 8 cm
North Bay - 3 to 7 cm
Durham Region; Northumberland, Prince Edward, Hastings Counties (Belleville; Oshawa) - 8 to 15 cm
Frontenac, Stormont-Dundas-Glengarry Counties (Brockville; Kingston; Cornwall) - 8 to 18 cm
Ottawa (Kanata; Nepean; Gluocester) - 5 to 10 cm
Renfrew County; Haliburton - 5 to 12 cm

Québec

Vaudreil - Dorion - 10 to 20 cm
Mont Tremblant - 10 to 20  cm
Gatineau (Hull; Chelsea) - 5 to 10cm
Montréal - 15 to 20 cm
Terrebonne - 20 to 30 cm
Laval - 5 to 15 cm
Trois-Rivières (Cap-de-la-Magdaleine) - 10 to 12 cm
Shawanigan - 6 to 14 cm
Sherbrooke; Drummondville - 2 to 10 cm (More rain)
La Ville de Québec (Lévis; Ste-Foy) - 8 to 15 cm
Rimouski - 10 to 15 cm
Gaspé Penisula - Trace to 4 cm

I like your maps!!!! I'll see you later!

Nice maps...

1st!!!!!!!