Ottawa, ON - Not a surprising news to Eastern Canadians that we're yet again in for another storm. Since I have more time today (yes, March Break is finally here), I am going to analyze this storm in detail.

Precipitation (mainly snow) had already invaded much of Southern Ontario and parts of Southwestern Quebec as of 18:30 EST. Note that all of Canada is currently experiencing the warm front side of the system, and hence, a longer lasting period of precipitation, as well as a gusty northeasterly winds is expected. Due to the warm front will not penetrate through much of Ontario and Quebec, hence, the winds will stay as northeasterly.

A different story is in store for Atlantic Canada. The area, will in fact, be on the south side of the warm front, and hence, the strong mild southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico will inherit that area, hence giving the locals a mix precipitation as well as rain.

There are actually two low pressure systems that are "ready to attack" Eastern Canada, and they come one after another from the Gulf of Mexico. The second one is expected to be more intense than the one before. The one that is currently affecting Southern Ontario and southeastern Quebec is the weaker one. (Hey, it's just the beginning of the game... don't panic YET)

For both of the systems, according to 18 Z GFS, will have a rain/snow line marked from roughly the New Brunswick-Maine Line, up north through Central New Brunswick, through the most populated region of New Brunswick (i.e. Fredericton, Moncton), and up north through Prince Edward Island, then through the Gulf of St. Lawrence, eventually finding its way up north, "cutting" Newfoundland in half. Anything east of this line will see MOST of the precipitation as rain, while west of this line will see MOST of the precipitation as snow. Areas on and around the line will see a mix precipitation, and a prolonged period of freezing rain is entirely possible over New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, as well as Central Newfoundland. However, there are little exceptions to be made. Areas such as Cowansville (south of Montreal), Sherbrooke, Cornwall, Brockville, etc, has a slight possibility of mix precipitation, and can significantly reduce the final snowfall accumulation

18Z GFS suggests most of the precipitation should reach to most of Eastern Canada (Newfoundland excepted) by midnight. With the 850 mB 0C line still aligning a little east of New Brunswick, most of New Brunswick (except St. John and St. John County) could expect a start of snow to this storm. Yarmouth, Liverpool, Anapolis, will have a head start to this storm by having some light rain showers, which will later be intensified and push into the Halifax Regional Municipality area. At this point and time, most of the affected area will see the "tamest" and "quietest" part of the storm.

By dawn (06:00 AM EST; 07:00 AM AST), heavier pockets of rain will push into Southern and Central Nova Scotia, while heavy wet snow and mix precipitation can be expected in and around Bay of Fundy. Southern Ontario and Southern / Central Quebec remains to be in the light snow range, by this time, about 5 to 15 cm should have accumulated across Southern Ontario and  Southern / Central Quebec.

At noon hours (12 noon EST, 13:00 AST), heavier snowfall started to move into Southern Ontario. In particular, a spot to notice is around the Niagara Peninsula. It is the closest point to the system centre in Ontario. Northernly winds start to pour into Southcentral and Southwestern Ontario, and blizzard conditions will be widespread across the Golden Horseshoe. Snow could fall as heavy as 2 cm per hour!
Meanwhile, most of eastern New Brunswick will switch to a mix of rain/snow, or plain rain. Nova Scotia will be bombarded with heavy rain, coastal flooding may be a concern, with a surge of high southernly winds. Storm surge can also be a problem.

Then comes the most critical hour for all impacted areas of Canada. This is the time when the heaviest bands of precipitation move into Eastern Canada. As of the evening hour according to the 18Z GFS (18:00 EST, 19:00 AST), heavy spots of precipitation is widespread. The Greater Toronto Area will be bombarded with the last blast of blizzard and heavy snow, strong northerly winds are also accompanying this. In Montreal, same scenarios can also happen. Meanwhile, heavy mix precipitation will be falling in Eastern New Brunswick, while extensive freezing rain period strikes the most populous parts of New Brunswick. It looks like Nova Scotia and the Bay of Fundy will be hit with heavy downpours of rain, as well as strong southerly wind, encouraging storm surge. Thunder and lightning could also accompany the rain. Additionally, the storm finally successfully invaded Newfoundland, light snow to be fallen in Western Newfoundland, extreme Eastern Quebec, and Labrador. On the east side, some moderate rainfall will be falling. Coastal flooding will be a later concern.

By midnight Saturday, majority of the snow have moved out of Southwestern Ontario, while light to moderate snow still lingers in and around Ontario. Since the storm system centres around Montreal, Quebec, hence, it will make sense to see the heaviest snow near Ottawa, Gatineau, Kingston, Montreal, and as far north as Trois-Rivieres. The rain-snow line remains pretty much stationery, with moderate and heavy rain continues to fall near Bay of Fundy, and heavy mix precip around Prince Edward Island and New Brunswick.

By Sunday Morning, Ontario is done with the storm with some wrap around flurries, accumulating at most up to 3 cm. Precipitation significantly wind down in much of Quebec, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, and Nova Scotia, with light rain and mix precipitation falling. Slightly heavier rain still falls around Prince Edward Island and Nova Scotia. Snow-rain line starts to shift east again, following the upper air temperature lines. At this point, much of the precipitation moves into Newfoundland. Much of Newfoundland will see heavy snow, while St. John's and area can see a mix precipitation maybe rain is possible.

Snowfall Forecast (Friday Afternoon - Sunday Afternoon) -- > My Personal Opinion :

Ontario

Essex County (Windsor; La Salle; Tecumseh) - 2 to 7 cm
Lambton County; Chatham-Kent - 3 to 8 cm
Perth County; Huron County (Stratford) - 3 to 15 cm
Waterloo Region (Kitchener; Cambridge) - 12 to 18 cm
Middlesex County; London - 10 to 18 cm
Brant County; Oxford County (Brantford) - 12 to 20 cm
Hamilton (Stoney Creek; Dundas; Ancaster) - 18 to 25 cm
Niagara Region; Haldimand County; Norfolk County (St. Catharines; Niagara Falls) - 25 to 40 cm
Halton Region; Peel Region (Burlington; Mississauga) - 18 to 25 cm
Toronto (North York; Etobicoke; Scarborough) - 20 to 30 cm
York Region (Markham; Vaughan; Newmarket) - 15 to 35 cm
Simcoe County (Barrie; Collingwood; Midland) - 12 to 20 cm
Muskoka (Huntsville; Gravenhurst) - 7 to 15 cm
North Bay - 3 to 8 cm
Durham Region; Northumberland, Prince Edward, Hastings Counties (Belleville; Oshawa) - 25 to 35 cm
Peterborough County; Kawartha Lakes (Peterborough, Lindsay) - 25 to 35 cm
Frontenac, Stormont-Dundas-Glengarry Counties (Brockville; Kingston; Cornwall) - 20 to 35 cm (Freezing Rain Possible)
Ottawa (Kanata; Nepean; Gluocester) - 30 to 45 cm
Renfrew County; Haliburton - 8 to 18 cm

Québec

Vaudreil - Dorion - 25 to 35 cm
Mont Tremblant - 30 to 40 cm
Gatineau (Hull; Chelsea) - 30 to 45 cm
Montréal - 25 to 40 cm (Slight risk of Freezing Rain)
Terrebonne - 25 to 40 xm
Laval - 20 to 35 cm
Trois-Rivières (Cap-de-la-Magdaleine) - 30 to 40 cm
Shawanigan - 22 to 35 cm
Sherbrooke; Drummondville - 12 to 20 cm (Slight risk of Freezing Rain)
La Ville de Québec (Lévis; Ste-Foy) - 25 to 45 cm
Rimouski - 20 to 40 cm
Gaspé Penisula - 20 to 40 cm
Sept-Iles - 5 to 15 cm

New Brunswick

Bathurst; Campbellton - 15 to 25 cm (Snow to Freezing Rain to Snow)
Fredericton - 5 to 15 cm (Snow to Mix to Rain to Snow)
Moncton; Dieppe; Riverview - 2 to 8 cm (Snow to Mix to Rain to Snow)
St. John - No Snow Accumulation to 5 cm (Mostly Rain)

Prince Edward Island

Charlottetown - 4 to 8 cm (Snow to Mix to Rain to Snow)
Summerside - 3 to 8 cm (Snow to Mix to Rain to Snow)
Souris - 4 to 8 cm (Snow to Mix to Rain to Snow)

Nova Scotia

ALL RAIN

Newfoundland and Labrador

Corner Brook - 10 to 20 cm
Stephenville - 10 to 18 cm
Port-aux-Basque - 8 to 20 cm
L'Anse-aux-Meadows - 5 to 15 cm
Gander - 5 to 15 cm (Snow to Rain to Snow)
St. John's and Area (Conception Bay South, Mount Pearl) - Trace to 3 cm (Mostly Rain)
Happy Valley - Goose Bay - 2 to 5 cm

There are no comments to this entry.